A full state pension is likely to go above £12,000 next year bringing it within £570 of the income tax threshold.

The triple lock guarantee, which the government has signed up to, ensures that the state pension increases each year by average wage growth, inflation or 2.5 per cent — whichever is highest. The increase comes into effect on April 6, when the tax year starts, and is normally confirmed in March. It is based on either the Consumer Prices Index measure of inflation for the year to September or wage growth in the three months to July.

At the moment the full new state pension is worth £221.20 a week — £11,502.40 a year — while those who reached state pension age before April 2016 get a maximum of £169.50 a week from the basic state pension — £8,814 a year.

Inflation is at 2.2 per cent, according to the latest figures for the year to July, but pensioners could be in line for a bigger boost because wages went up 4.5 per cent in the three months to June. If next month’s wage growth is more than 4.3 per cent the new state pension will rise above £12,000 in April. A 4.5 per cent rise would increase it to £231.15 a week, equal to £12,020 a year, and boost the old state pension to £9,211 a year.

Steven Cameron from the pensions firm Aegon said: “While not yet certain, this gives the best indication yet of how much the state pension will increase next April under the triple lock, which the Labour government has confirmed will remain in place.

“With the latest inflation figure sitting near 2 per cent, even if we see modest increases in coming months, it’s highly likely that the increase will be based on the earnings growth for July.”

There was an 8.5 per cent increase to the state pension this year and a 10.1 per cent jump in April 2023.

• Are you on track for your dream retirement?

The personal allowance — the income you can get free of tax — has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021 and is set to remain unchanged until 2028 and the number of pensioners who pay tax has gone from 6.74 million in 2021-22 to 8.51 million in 2023-24, according to HM Revenue & Customs.

Steve Webb, a partner at the consultancy Lane Clark and Peacock, estimates that another 400,000 pensioners who get income from other sources could be dragged into paying tax if the state pension rises 4.5 per cent in April.

“Even a relatively modest increase in the state pension next year could lead to hundreds of thousands more pensioners paying income tax because of the long-term freeze on tax thresholds. It will also drag more into the higher rates of income tax,” Webb said.

“This means more bureaucracy for individual pensioners to have to deal with and more pressure on the administration of the tax system, and it is hard to believe that creating lots of accidental taxpayers is a cost-effective strategy.”

If the state pension rose 4.5 per cent in 2025-26 and 2.5 per cent in both 2026-27 and 2027-2028 the new state pension would exceed the £12,570 tax-free threshold. If the personal allowance had risen in line with inflation it would be £15,220 today.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, estimates that 8 million pensioners face an average tax rise of £960 a year. Millions will also lose out because the annual winter fuel payment, worth up to £300, has been scrapped for those not on pension credit.

• What is pension credit and can I claim it?

About 8.4 million households get the winter fuel payment but only 1.37 million people claim pension credit, which is available to those with an income of less than £218.15 a week.

There is an online calculator published by the government that lets you check whether you are entitled to pension credit and how much you can get — about £75 a week on average.

Cameron said: “While next April’s state pension increase is likely to be higher than current inflation, any increase in real terms will be significantly dented by the loss of the winter fuel allowance.”